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Jin billion industry: domestic demand and railway fastener driving profitability improved significantly

Review the gem year industrial performance center daily news in 2010:
Industrial Shinzo billion in 2010 Interim Report released to achieve operating income 1269000000 yuan, the completion of the annual target of 60.43%, an increase of 51.6%; total profit of 154000000 yuan, the same period in 2009 for the loss of 41740000 yuan; the first half of 2010 the after tax net profit attributable to the parent company 119000000 yuan, the same period in 2009 of 21500000 yuan for the loss.
1 domestic demand comprehensive
Gem year industrial 8.29+0.050.61% warmer, the company income growth is not only high-speed rail fastener
The main reason why companies during the first half of 2010 profit growth: (1) after the business income in the first half of 2009 fell 7% from a year earlier, the first half of 2010 increased to 51.6%. The 2 quarter of high-speed rail fastener grows 133.61% compared to the same period, the income increase, domestic fastener year-on-year growth as high as 90.95%; (2) the product structure adjustment were obvious, railway fastener sales of high margin reached 523000000 yuan, the total income ratio reached 42.5%; (3) the market, product prices have rebounded, the company fasteners wool interest rate from 22% in 2009 to 27.08%.
The 2 benefit from product structure adjustment in the first half of 2010, the product gross margin rose significantly
High-speed rail fastener is expected in 2010 will achieve sales income of 1200000000 yuan, after we split the calculation, estimation of high-speed rail fastening wool interest rate back to 35% or so, than we previously expected; Jin Yi Department General fasteners have been gradually to the high-end transition, is expected to gross margin of nearly 20%; general fasteners Shandong Jinde produced is still in the lower end, after deducting the rail fastening iron plate, the company standard fastener gross margin is expected to be about 5% or so, the first half of the general fasteners in general wool interest rate is estimated to reach 16.22%; taking into account the 3 quarter the company area electricity tension, may affect the production schedule, we expect the second half of 2010, Jin billion industry general fasteners comprehensive hair interest rates are higher than the first half of the year is expected to decline, 13.79%,.
3 high income growth driven company during the first half of 2010 cost rate has dropped
Because we calculate high-speed rail fastener gem year industrial sales need to pay fees and technical support for sales agents, sales management fee rate is higher, so from the single season sales high-speed rail fastener is higher for the 2 quarter of 2010, a pin tube rates a high-speed rail fastener sales less the 1 quarter increased, but because of high-speed rail fastener. Estimation of interest rate has reached about 35%, thus significantly improve the company's profitability.
The 4.2 quarter gem year industrial asset quality and operation ability.
Gem year industrial accounts receivable turnover and inventory turnover rate recovered to a better condition during the 2 quarter, operating cash flow return is positive, the quality of the company's assets and operation ability improvement
5 the current steel prices relatively stable, company provision for impairment loss of assets lower pressure from the following two can be seen from the picture, the gem year industrial practice of the large inventory strategy, the history of the company with the decline in steel prices lag time to provision for impairment loss of assets. Current estimates in the hands of high-speed rail fastener orders up to 1400000000 yuan, and the company of steel and finished goods inventory write offs, and the recent steel prices basically stable, we expect the second half of 2010 and after a period of time, the provision for asset impairment loss of lower pressure.
6 profit forecast and valuation based on the following assumptions we predict the profits of the company:
In 2010 the high-speed rail income at around 1200000000, to maintain growth of around 30% over the next two years, and keep 30% of the gross margin; automotive fasteners to continue its rapid growth, in 2010 the income of 200000000 yuan, to maintain a growth rate of around 50% in the next 2 years, wool interest rate gradually to 30% each; other fasteners sales gradually restore growth; cost rate the basic theory of stability, the income tax rate of 2010-2012 years were 22%, 24% and 25%.
Give the company 6 months target price of 8.90 yuan to 10.42 yuan. We will be 2010 EPS trim up to 0.31 yuan, to maintain the 2011-2012 0.41 yuan and 0.54 yuan of profit forecast. In August 17th the company's closing price of 8.27 yuan, than we first recommend have risen by about 20%, distance we first give 6 months target price 8.90-10.42 yuan still has certain space, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tip 7
(1) the second largest shareholder of the company Ding Jianzhong before the end of 2009 through two grade market cumulative reduction of 12599900 shares, by the end of 2010 6 Ding Jianzhong is still holding 71400100 shares in 2009, the stock was selling its stake to 15%. Ding Jianzhong promised a year and after six months since the date of the listing and trading of shares, not to transfer the shares held by the issuer, today Ding Jianzhong resigned, after 6 months in February 18, 2011 after Ding Jianzhong can sell a total of 71400000 shares, the total share capital of 9.67%.
(2) the company semi annual report disclosed in Zhejiang the 3 quarter of this year, power supply shortage plans to reduce electricity supply to the Jin billion industry, may lead to inadequate risk summer factory.
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